Description: This paper demonstrates that using a conditional probability approach to analyzing investment data yields investment forecast and stock option pricing models which more closely match actual market data, and it demonstrates the impact that conditional probabilities could have on CAPM beta and risk premia calculations. Reprinted from: Journal of Financial and Economic Practice, Vol. 6 No. 2 Spring 2006.

Description: Investment volatility can lead to unacceptable levels of contribution volatility and wide swings in a retirement plan’s perceived funded status. This paper approaches the volatility problem from a plan design perspective.